Last of the Air-Cooled Porsches DO command a premium

Tipped recently to the Craigslist Index site, I couldn't resist taking a look at how my favorite car's stats are doing. And here's the graph they so generously provide:



The label appears elsewhere on their page, but this is for "Make: Porsche". I love this graph. My current favorite Porsche (besides my own Legs) is the 1996-98 911. Cognescenti know this car as the "993", the internal project number for the car. The 993 was also made in 1995, the changeover model year from the previous "964" project. But that '95 911 has slightly less HP do mostly to intake manifold changes. No surprise, Porsche is known for Continuous Process (and Product) Improvement.

So look at the graph. I don't think Craigslist has that bump in the Avg. Price for the 1997 Porsche because its my favorite. And the slight dip in the 96 and 98 relative to the typical aging trend is interesting, too, eh? The 1999 911 was a new model, the "996", and it had some growing pains which explains the further drop in Avg. Price even though the volume trends up.

What is happening for 1997 is that I'm not the only one who claims that year/model Porsche as the favorite. But there's one more deeper thing going on here, which might explain the 1996 price drop and the big volume pop in the same year.

Of course there's a relationship between volume (availability) and price, but I think it has to do with the introduction of the Boxster (986) model that year, sold in 1996 as a 1997. The Boxster was a cheaper car, and as it has had benefit of Continous Process Improvement as well, the first cars are relatively less-powerful, less comforatable, less-reliable and therefore...cheaper! Which, blows the curve, as they say, for the 911 prices.

The relatively lower pool of cars for sale for the 1997 year (as reported to Craigslist), and the commensurate raise in price, shows that the demand is up, the availablity is down--fewer lovers of the car putting their baby on the block and so the price jumps.

The 1998 drop comes from the fact that there was very little 993 production for that year. It was a "short" year, with Porsche wanting to introduce the brand-new 996 model. Volume is up because the 1998 996 sold very well, but price is down because the new 996 suffered many of the teething pains that the 986 did in its maiden year. But all is well with Porsche, as the trend is up-up-up since then.

Putting aside the absolutely ghastly depreciation hit these cars take in their first year (look at the 2008-2007 cliff), I see an interesting trend in the most recent years. 2005-2006 price spikes, but volume drops. That would be the introduction of the next 911, the Projekt "997" car.

Not enough samples for 2009 cars--I presume the drop is due to "lease escapes" and the economy. Two Thousand Nine is another year for the 997, but there are Very Significant Product Improvements in '09, and it will be interesting to see this graph in a year.

In the meantime, it doesn't look good for the shoppers of 1997 Porsche 993s. Lucky sellers, though.